Conservatives increased BME vote share in 2015

The Guardian front page yesterday reported on the increase in the BME share of the vote going to the Conservative party in the 2015 general election based on survey results by British Future.

British Future surveyed 2000 voters from BME backgrounds between May 8 and 14, comparing the vote share for the major political parties in the 2015 election with results from the Ethnic Minority British Election Study which showed that Labour was the party of choice of BME voters in the 2010 election attracting 68% of BME voters compared to the Conservatives’ 16% and Lib Dems’ 14%.

According to British Future’s survey results, the Conservative vote share rose to 33% in this election with the party faring better among British Asian voters than with Black or Mixed race voters. Among British Asians, the Conservatives were more likely to attract votes from British Hindus and Sikhs, than from British Muslims.

The British Future results are based on estimates of 3 million BME voters casting a vote in the last election, though results from the EMBES study on the 2010 election shows that BME voters have lower voter turnout rates than the White majority. A related point, which emerges from polling data from Ipsos Mori released last week, shows that Labour supporters in general are more likely to stay away from the ballot box than Conservatives voters, with higher turnout rates recorded among the latter.

The British Future results are consistent with the EMBES findings from the 2010 election which showed that British Indians were most likely of all BME groups to vote Conservative, with 24% of British Indians supporting the Tories in 2010 compared to 13% of Pakistanis, 18% of Bangladeshis, 9% of  Black Caribbean and 6% of Black African voters.

The steady demise of Labour’s BME vote share was noted by Maria Sobolewska, one of the academics involved in the EMBES study in an article published in the Daily Telegraph in December 2014. Sobolewska’s analysis of British Election Study data shows the falling share of the BME vote going to Labour from 1997 to 2014 with the decline starkest among British Indians, but falling also among Pakistanis, Black Caribbeans and Black Africans.

Support for the Labour Party among Indian voters fell from 77% in 1997 to just 18% in 2014. Support among British Pakistanis fell from 77 to 57 per cent, Caribbean support dropped from 78% to 67% and support from Black Africans fell from 79% to 63%.

The loss of the BME vote to the Labour Party and Conservative efforts to appeal to BME voters following the party’s poor showing of 16% in the 2010 election appears to have paid off with some minority groups than with others.

British Hindus and Sikhs, according to the British Future results, were more likely to have voted Conservative and British Muslims more likely to vote Labour:

• Muslim: 64% Labour, 25% Conservative
• Hindu: 41% Labour, 49% Conservative
• Sikh: 41% Labour, 49% Conservative

There are a number of related, causal factors that are worth noting in connection with analysis on voting behaviour among BME voters and the low level of support evinced by British Muslim voters for the Conservative Party. Lord Major, the former Conservative PM spoke about the party’s relationship with BME voters being “not remotely goodish” days ahead of the general election and Peter Oborne, the former chief political commentator of the Daily Telegraph, asked “Why are the Conservatives ignoring the Muslim vote?”

While the Conservatives have been aware of the problem of broadening their appeal to BME voters since the publication of Lord Ashcroft’s report ‘Degrees of Separation’, it would seem the strategy employed has been to appeal to some BME groups over others. Prejudices about Muslim voters “being on benefits and voting Labour” have been voiced in the past and the appeal to BME voters has presently been couched in the language of “aspiration”, building on Tory appeal to working class voters in the 1980s through policies such as the right to buy council houses. There are echoes of this in the analysis by British Future.

But there is more to the work of party strategists about which BME groups might appear to be amenable to the Conservative message than aspiration. There are also wider concerns about the policy of engagement, or lack thereof, by the Conservative Party with British Muslim communities. Consider that the PM, David Cameron, visited Sikh and Hindu temples during the election campaign but not a single mosque. Consider further the comments by Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, former co-chairman of the Conservative Party, about the “trust deficit” cultivated among British Muslims as a consequence of Tory policy on engaging with Muslim groups. The range of policies that have affected Muslim communities in recent years, from the Counter Terrorism and Security Act to the impending Counter Extremism Bill, and the Conservatives’ flippant response to press regulation following the report by the Leveson Inquiry suggest that low Tory appeal among Muslim voters is not because Muslims are not receptive to the message of upward social mobility but because the reality of political exclusion stands in sharp contrast to the promise of aspiration.